🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.78 xG and Dordrecht 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Dordrecht attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it MVV 53% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 23%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 56%, Dordrecht 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights