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Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat MVV 2-4 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.56 xG and Den Bosch 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 49% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 25%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 51%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights