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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant MVV run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat Den Bosch 5-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.34 xG and Den Bosch 1.41 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Den Bosch attack 1.05 / defence 0.76, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 35% | Draw 27% | Den Bosch 38%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual MVV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.31 PPG, Den Bosch 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights