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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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MVV and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV and De Graafschap finished level at 3-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.36 xG and De Graafschap 1.50 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 33% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 40%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 59%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights