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Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.24 xG and Cambuur 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Cambuur attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 39% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 33%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 52%, Cambuur 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambuur's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights