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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 1-4 hammering of MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat MVV 1-4 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.85 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.33 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. MVV fell 0.8 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.36 / defence 0.87 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 49% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 27%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.39 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights