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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht beat Jong PSV U21 5-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.03 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.92 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 37%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.83 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights