Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Jong Utrecht welcome Jong PSV U21 to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 1.50 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Jong PSV U21, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Jong Utrecht.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Jong PSV U21 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 59% and Jong PSV U21 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 59% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.03 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.975 / defence 1.156 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.087 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.528. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Jong Utrecht games / 59 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 4.76 | Jong PSV U21 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.95 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 70% | Jong PSV U21 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Jong Utrecht 2.03 / Jong PSV U21 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.975 / def 1.156 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.087 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Jong PSV U21 xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong Utrecht 5 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.97) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
41%
2.42
21%
4.68
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.95
1.92
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
15%
6.82
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.48
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.92 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 11W 16D 32L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 18W 10D 31L from 59 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.83 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 9W 5D 16L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.63 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 69%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 16D 32L in their last 59 games (0.83 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 18W 10D 31L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
5
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 60%, Jong PSV U21 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Jong Utrecht and 67% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jong Utrecht's games and 60% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 67% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Jong PSV U21 5-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.03 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.92 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 21% | Jong PSV U21 37%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.83 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.