Jong Utrecht 2-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Utrecht face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Jong Utrecht versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Monday 28 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
FC Volendam arrive in superior form — a 2.40 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Volendam, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Volendam winning.
It is worth noting that FC Volendam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus FC Volendam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 52% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.82 xG and FC Volendam 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.642 / defence 1.115 | FC Volendam attack 1.149 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.255. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Jong Utrecht games / 35 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 18% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | FC Volendam 1.82. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 60% | FC Volendam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 28 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 18% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.82 / FC Volendam 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.642 / def 1.115 | FC Volendam attack 1.149 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.61
FC Volendam xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 28 April 2025 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 18% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.64x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.15x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
18%
5.47
27%
3.75
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.43
1.61
FC Volendam xG
5.47
18%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
27.33
24%
4.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.61 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 6W 22D 41L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 28W 11D 30L from 69 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.74 PPG from 34 outings (4W 13D 17L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 11W 9D 14L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.65 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 22D 41L in their last 69 games (0.58 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 28W 11D 30L in their last 69 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.74 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2025, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 50%, FC Volendam 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Jong Utrecht) and 68% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jong Utrecht's games and 74% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 68% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Jong Utrecht 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong Utrecht 2-3 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.82 xG and FC Volendam 1.61 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.64 / defence 1.11 against FC Volendam attack 1.15 / defence 0.76, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 18% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 55%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 52%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.