Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Utrecht and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 28, as Jong Utrecht and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 1.32 against FC OSS attack 0.61 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 52%, FC OSS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.67 PPG, FC OSS 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights