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Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 1-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.80 xG and Emmen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Emmen attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 55% | Draw 23% | Emmen 22%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 54%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights