🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong Utrecht 2-4 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.35 xG and Cambuur 1.24 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Cambuur attack 0.91 / defence 0.70, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 34%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 57%, Cambuur 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Cambuur's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights