Jong Utrecht 2-4 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 39%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambuur make the trip to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cambuur are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Jong Utrecht 2W, Cambuur 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Utrecht — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 57% versus Cambuur 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 57% | Cambuur 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.35 xG and Cambuur 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.135 / defence 1.053 | Cambuur attack 0.913 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.293. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Jong Utrecht games / 44 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 60% | Cambuur 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 22 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.35 / Cambuur 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.135 / def 1.053 | Cambuur attack 0.913 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Cambuur xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 September 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 4 Cambuur.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (1.14) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.91x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.79
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.59
1.24
Cambuur xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.24 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 44 games, going 6W 12D 26L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.86 PPG from 44 outings (25W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 5W 7D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.77 points per game from 22 outings (12W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.61 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 12D 26L in their last 44 games (0.68 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 25W 7D 12L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Cambuur in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 23 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 54%, Cambuur 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong Utrecht) and 41% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 41%; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 36% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 41% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong Utrecht 2-4 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.35 xG and Cambuur 1.24 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against Cambuur attack 0.91 / defence 0.70, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 34%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 57%, Cambuur 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.