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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Jong Utrecht 2-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.31 xG and Almere City FC 1.91 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Almere City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 32%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 61%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.89 PPG, Almere City FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights