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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Waalwijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Waalwijk 3-1 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG and Waalwijk 1.53 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 39% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 36%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 76%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights