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Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out Jong AZ 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 1-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.32 xG and Jong AZ 1.73 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Jong AZ attack 1.13 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 29%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 73%, Jong AZ 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong AZ's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.95 PPG, Jong AZ 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights