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Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Fri 29 Aug 2025

19:00

Venue

De Herdgang

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Jong PSV U21 Win

51%

Jong PSV U21

1.95

20%

Draw

5.05

29%

Jong AZ

3.45

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

7.0%

Draw

2 – 2

7.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.32

Jong PSV U21 xG

Total xG

4.05

1.73

Jong AZ xG

51%
20%
29%
Jong PSV U21DrawJong AZ

1.95

51%

Home win

5.05

20%

Draw

3.45

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

91%

Over 1.5

1.10

9%

Under 1.5

11.11

77%

Over 2.5

1.30

23%

Under 2.5

4.35

58%

Over 3.5

1.72

42%

Under 3.5

2.38

38%

Over 4.5

2.63

62%

Under 4.5

1.61

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

74%

BTTS Yes

1.35

26%

BTTS No

3.88

Clean Sheet

18%

Jong PSV U21

5.65

10%

Jong AZ

10.16

Win to Nil

9%

Jong PSV U21

11.03

3%

Jong AZ

35.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2
1 4.0 7.0 6.1 3.5 1.5 0.5
2 4.7 8.1 7.0 4.1 1.8 0.6
3 3.6 6.3 5.4 3.1 1.4 0.5
4 2.1 3.6 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3
5 1.0 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.318
λ Away (xG) 1.732
Total xG 4.050
League avg home goals 1.681
League avg away goals 1.269
Jong PSV U21 attack strength 1.134
Jong PSV U21 defence strength 1.210
Jong AZ attack strength 1.128
Jong AZ defence strength 1.216
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41