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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Emmen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Emmen 3-1 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.73 xG and Emmen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against Emmen attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 23% | Emmen 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights