Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong PSV U21 face Dordrecht.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht meet at De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Jong PSV U21 (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong PSV U21's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Dordrecht's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Dordrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Jong PSV U21's games and 70% of Dordrecht's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Jong PSV U21, 4 for Dordrecht and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Jong PSV U21 2–1 Dordrecht — a Jong PSV U21 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 70% and Dordrecht 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 77% | Dordrecht 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong PSV U21 surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.233 / defence 0.995 | Dordrecht attack 0.912 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.455. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 66 games and Dordrecht's last 66.

Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.97 | Draw 4.21 | Dordrecht 3.92. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).

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