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Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong PSV U21 beat Den Bosch 3-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.77 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Den Bosch attack 1.21 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 33%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights