Jong PSV U21 3-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Monday 22 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Herdgang this season.
Den Bosch have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.50 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Jong PSV U21 2W, Den Bosch 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 2–4 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 66% versus Den Bosch 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 70% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.77 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.873 / defence 0.972 | Den Bosch attack 1.205 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.293. Den Bosch have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Jong PSV U21 games / 43 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Den Bosch 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 22 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.77 / Den Bosch 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.873 / def 0.972 | Den Bosch attack 1.205 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 September 2025 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
Record (7 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.87) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (1.21x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.37
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.28
1.51
Den Bosch xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.51 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 13W 6D 25L from 44 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 14L across 44 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Den Bosch by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 6W 3D 13L from 22 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.45 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Den Bosch in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 13W 6D 25L in their last 44 games (1.02 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.95 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 on 22 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Den Bosch have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-1 Den Bosch.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Jong PSV U21, 54% for Den Bosch — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Jong PSV U21 and 68% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Jong PSV U21's games and 54% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 68% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Den Bosch 3-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.77 xG and Den Bosch 1.51 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Den Bosch attack 1.21 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 44% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 33%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 70%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.