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Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Willem II 4-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.72 xG and Willem II 1.81 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Willem II landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Willem II attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 37% | Draw 22% | Willem II 41%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 67%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Willem II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, Willem II 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights