Jong AZ vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Jong AZ welcome Waalwijk to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jong AZ) versus 1.30 (Waalwijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jong AZ, 2 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Waalwijk trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 65% and Waalwijk 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 71% | Waalwijk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.63 xG and Waalwijk 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.999 / defence 1.145 | Waalwijk attack 0.781 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Data: 51 Jong AZ games / 51 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 43% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 22 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 43% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong AZ 1.63 / Waalwijk 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.999 / def 1.145 | Waalwijk attack 0.781 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Waalwijk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Waalwijk kick off?
Jong AZ vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 22 February 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Waalwijk part of?
Jong AZ vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 43% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong AZ and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Waalwijk in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.00x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.18
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.05
1.41
Waalwijk xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.41 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 6D 29L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 17W 20D 15L from 52 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.10 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 0.88 PPG from 26 outings (7W 2D 17L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 7W 12D 7L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.75 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 79%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 17W 6D 29L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Waalwijk away?
Waalwijk's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.88 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 0, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Waalwijk 2-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 54%, Waalwijk 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jong AZ) and 54% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Jong AZ's games and 73% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong AZ's matches and 54% of Waalwijk's.
Do Jong AZ and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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