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Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Vitesse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Vitesse 4-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.55 xG and Vitesse 1.46 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Vitesse attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 24% | Vitesse 36%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 66%, Vitesse 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitesse's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.18 PPG, Vitesse 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights