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Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Jong AZ 1-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.03 xG and Telstar 1.25 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Telstar attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 55% | Draw 22% | Telstar 23%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Telstar 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.34 PPG, Telstar 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights