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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ and MVV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 32, as Jong AZ and MVV drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.95 xG and MVV 1.47 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.94 / defence 1.45 against MVV attack 0.69 / defence 1.30, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 48% | Draw 23% | MVV 29%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, MVV 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

MVV's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.19 PPG, MVV 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights