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Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Jong AZ 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.61 xG and FC Volendam 1.91 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.14 / defence 1.25 against FC Volendam attack 1.23 / defence 0.84, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 33% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 45%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.37 PPG, FC Volendam 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights