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Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Excelsior 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Excelsior 2-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.32 xG and Excelsior 1.69 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Excelsior attack 1.28 / defence 0.84, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 30% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 46%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 69%, Excelsior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.40 PPG, Excelsior 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights