Jong AZ vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 2D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.20 PPG versus Dordrecht's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 60% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 69% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.82 xG and Dordrecht 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.774 / defence 0.963 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Jong AZ games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 46% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 31%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 3.23. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | Dordrecht 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 46% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong AZ 1.82 / Dordrecht 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.774 / def 0.963 | Dordrecht attack 0.905 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Dordrecht xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 3 May 2027 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 46% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.77x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.41
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.30
1.48
Dordrecht xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
5%
19.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.48 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 4D 24L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (13W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.10 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 5W 2D 14L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.26 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 24L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.81 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 48%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Jong AZ and 67% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Jong AZ's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jong AZ's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.