Almere City FC vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host Jong AZ at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Almere City FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 4 for Jong AZ and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2026, ended 4–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 67% and Jong AZ 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | Jong AZ 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.97 xG and Jong AZ 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.879 | Jong AZ attack 1.160 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Data: 43 Almere City FC games / 43 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 44% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.27 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Jong AZ lead the H2H ledger, but Almere City FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 44% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Almere City FC 1.97 / Jong AZ 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.925 / def 0.879 | Jong AZ attack 1.160 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Jong AZ xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Jong AZ kick off?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ part of?
Almere City FC vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 44% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 35% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Almere City FC and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 4W.
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
44%
2.27
21%
4.66
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.71
1.74
Jong AZ xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.88
5%
20.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.74 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 6D 15L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.07 PPG from 43 outings (14W 4D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (9W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.63 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 25L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Jong AZ away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Jong AZ won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Jong AZ have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Jong AZ 3-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 57%, Jong AZ 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Almere City FC and 81% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Almere City FC's games and 71% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Almere City FC's matches and 81% of Jong AZ's.
Do Almere City FC and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.