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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Jong AZ 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Jong AZ 1-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.82 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.84 / defence 1.37 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 29% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 46%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.24 PPG, Dordrecht 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights