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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 28, as Jong AZ and Den Bosch drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.67 xG and Den Bosch 1.85 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 42%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, Den Bosch 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.25 PPG, Den Bosch 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights