🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Jong AZ's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 36, as Jong AZ and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.87 xG and Den Bosch 1.37 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 48% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 28%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.38 PPG, Den Bosch 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights