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Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.48 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Cambuur attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 36%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Cambuur 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights