Jong AZ 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Trainingscomplex plays host to Jong AZ versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 25 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong AZ have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Jong AZ, 1.70 for Cambuur — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cambuur in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong AZ lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 70% versus Cambuur 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 70% | Cambuur 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.021 / defence 1.209 | Cambuur attack 0.981 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.245. Data: 40 Jong AZ games / 40 Cambuur games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 70% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong AZ 1.55 / Cambuur 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.021 / def 1.209 | Cambuur attack 0.981 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Cambuur xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong AZ vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 25 August 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Jong AZ vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Cambuur part of?
Jong AZ vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 40% chance of winning, Cambuur a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong AZ and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 3W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Cambuur in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.02x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.98x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.14
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.03
1.48
Cambuur xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.48 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 14W 10D 16L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 22W 6D 12L across 40 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong AZ heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 10W 3D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cambuur in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 22W 6D 12L in their last 40 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.20 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cambuur in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Cambuur have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cambuur 3-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Cambuur?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 80%, Cambuur 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jong AZ and 45% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong AZ's games and 40% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jong AZ's matches and 45% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong AZ and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.55 xG and Cambuur 1.48 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Cambuur attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 36%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Cambuur 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.