🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Jong AZ 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Jong AZ 3-4 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.51 xG and Almere City FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.75 / defence 1.20 against Almere City FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 33% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 44%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Almere City FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.21 PPG, Almere City FC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights