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Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Jong AZ 0-4 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.38 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.89 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.4 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.28 / defence 0.78, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 28% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 49%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 66%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong AZ's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights