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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.43 xG and Waalwijk 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 33%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 52%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Waalwijk's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.80 PPG, Waalwijk 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights