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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Jong Ajax 2-4 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.93 xG and VVV Venlo 1.26 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against VVV Venlo attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 22% | VVV Venlo 25%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a VVV Venlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 49%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

VVV Venlo's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.91 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights