🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Jong Ajax and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax and Roda finished level at 2-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.14 xG and Roda 1.62 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Roda attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 26% | Draw 26% | Roda 48%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 52%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights