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Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax beat Roda 3-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.22 xG and Roda 0.92 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 0.68 against Roda attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 33% | Roda 26%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 61%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights