Jong Ajax 3-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 41%, yet in-form Roda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Ajax vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host Roda at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark De Toekomst. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Roda's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Jong Ajax's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 56% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 61% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.22 xG and Roda 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.752 / defence 0.684 | Roda attack 0.960 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.403. Jong Ajax's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Jong Ajax games / 57 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 33% | Roda 26%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Roda 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Ajax are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 30% | Roda 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 23 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 33% | Roda 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Jong Ajax 1.22 / Roda 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.752 / def 0.684 | Roda attack 0.960 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Roda xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Roda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 December 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Jong Ajax 3 - 1 Roda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Roda part of?
Jong Ajax vs Roda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 41% chance of winning, Roda a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Jong Ajax and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 2 | Roda 4W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 0.75x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
41%
2.45
33%
3.01
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.14
0.92
Roda xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
8%
13.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.92 for Roda, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 14W 16D 27L from 57 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 12L across 57 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 10W 8D 10L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 9W 12D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.54 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 14W 16D 27L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Roda have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.36 PPG; Roda away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Ajax
5
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 1, Roda have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Jong Ajax 0-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 39%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong Ajax) and 46% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 36% of games; Roda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 64% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 46% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Roda 3-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.22 xG and Roda 0.92 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 0.68 against Roda attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 33% | Roda 26%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 61%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.