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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Utrecht beat Jong Ajax 0-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.51 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Ajax fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.75 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 30%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 56%, Jong Utrecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.95 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights