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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 11, as Jong Ajax and Jong PSV U21 drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.91 xG and Jong PSV U21 2.23 xG, a combined 4.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.31 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 34% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 46%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 52%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.88 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights