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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong Ajax beat Jong PSV U21 4-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.24 xG and Jong PSV U21 0.82 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 45% | Draw 31% | Jong PSV U21 24%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 63%, Jong PSV U21 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.03 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights