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Jong Ajax and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 10, as Jong Ajax and De Graafschap drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.38 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against De Graafschap attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 31% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 46%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 51%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

De Graafschap's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights