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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Fri 3 Oct 2025

19:00

Venue

Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

De Graafschap Win

31%

Jong Ajax

3.25

23%

Draw

4.26

46%

De Graafschap

2.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.7%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

0 – 1

7.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.38

Jong Ajax xG

Total xG

3.11

1.73

De Graafschap xG

31%
23%
46%
Jong AjaxDrawDe Graafschap

3.25

31%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

2.19

46%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

38%

Over 3.5

2.63

62%

Under 3.5

1.61

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.63

38%

BTTS No

2.60

Clean Sheet

18%

Jong Ajax

5.62

25%

De Graafschap

3.97

Win to Nil

5%

Jong Ajax

18.25

12%

De Graafschap

8.69

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.5 7.7 6.7 3.8 1.7 0.6
1 6.2 10.7 9.2 5.3 2.3 0.8
2 4.3 7.4 6.4 3.7 1.6 0.5
3 2.0 3.4 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.3
4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.380
λ Away (xG) 1.727
Total xG 3.107
League avg home goals 1.733
League avg away goals 1.392
Jong Ajax attack strength 0.944
Jong Ajax defence strength 1.190
De Graafschap attack strength 1.042
De Graafschap defence strength 0.844
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 47 / 46