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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat Jong Ajax 1-3 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.29 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.23 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 38% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 35%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 49%, ADO Den Haag 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jong Ajax's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights