Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Jong PSV U21 at Asito Stadium in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Heracles have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Asito Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Heracles carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Heracles have won 2, Jong PSV U21 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 53% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 73% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.91 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.366 / defence 0.801 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.955 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Heracles games / 48 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 74% | Draw 14% | Jong PSV U21 11%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.35 | Draw 7.14 | Jong PSV U21 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.91 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 40% | Jong PSV U21 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 74% | Draw 14% | Jong PSV U21 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 2.91 / Jong PSV U21 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.366 / def 0.801 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.955 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Heracles (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.91
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Jong PSV U21 xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Asito Stadium.
Where is Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 74% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are Heracles and Jong PSV U21 in?
Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heracles's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.91. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
74%
1.34
14%
7.02
11%
8.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.91
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.01
1.09
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.34
74%
Home win
7.02
14%
Draw
8.86
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
5%
18.41
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
163.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Heracles and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.91 expected goals for Heracles and 1.09 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 14W 5D 26L from 45 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 19L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.04 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 9W 3D 10L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.64 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 5D 26L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 9D 19L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Heracles's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.36 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Jong PSV U21 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Heracles
0
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Jong PSV U21?
From 2 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Heracles 3-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Jong PSV U21?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, Jong PSV U21 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Heracles and 73% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Heracles's games and 77% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Heracles's matches and 73% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Heracles and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.