FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Jong Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as FC Volendam welcome Jong Ajax to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Volendam are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jong Ajax in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Volendam: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Jong Ajax, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Volendam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Volendam and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Jong Ajax 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 62% | Jong Ajax 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.95 xG and Jong Ajax 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / defence 0.900 | Jong Ajax attack 0.865 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 2.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 43 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 15% | Jong Ajax 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.41 | Draw 6.67 | Jong Ajax 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (71%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.27. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.27 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.95 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 15% | Jong Ajax 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Volendam 2.95 / Jong Ajax 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / def 0.900 | Jong Ajax attack 0.865 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.95
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Jong Ajax xG
70%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 71% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 14% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Ajax in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.45) and Jong Ajax's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
71%
1.42
15%
6.62
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.95
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.27
1.32
Jong Ajax xG
1.42
71%
Home win
6.62
15%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
5%
19.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
1%
133.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.95 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.32 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 4.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 11W 8D 21L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 22L across 40 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.02 PPG, Jong Ajax on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong Ajax's away record stands at 4W 4D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.35 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong Ajax away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.45 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Jong Ajax have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Jong Ajax 0-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 75%, Jong Ajax at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 65% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 70% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 65% of Jong Ajax's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.